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Once you have subscribed to the NZ Ratings service you will have full access to our Race analysts information through the "NZ Ratings", "Australia" or "Hong Kong" Menus in the left column. This will provide access to all of the following services and information.

Selections

Our analysts provide selections and bets offering a "Best bet", "Next best Bet", and "Value Bet" for any given race meeting. Also a table of selections for the entire meeting is produced here.

Example:

Best bets

NZ Ratings selections

Best Bet: Race 5 Warren The Rooster - class factor

Next Best: Race 1 So Royal due to weak opposition, Go For Gold only danger.

Value Bet: Race 3 Gaston

Race Analysis - Example Taupo 12th August 2009

Looking forward to racing on an improved surface at Taupo today (Dead 4 as of Tuesday pm).

These spring Taupo meetings invariably reveal the early season stars, so exciting times.

Below is my assessment of the fields for the meeting today.

Track Analysis: Taupo

On a good to dead surface, “on-speed” and “handy” runners are favoured. The track has a down hill run from the 700 to the home turn, whereby horses racing on the speed can sneak away, at a time “back-markers” are looking to improve.

Invariably, history shows, class horses will overcome the disadvantage and win anyway.

Watch the pattern of racing closely. The track can “cut-up” quickly on the rails, improving the chances of “swoopers” and outside barriers.

Race 1- Ratings

	5
	1
	3	8
	4	6	7	9
	10	11

Expected pace

5.0 Average – Likely leaders 3, 6 and 5, 9 prominent.

So Royal (5) has run two very decent races, on heavy tracks, since returning from a long spell. The prospect of a “Dead” rating track should enhance her chances. Her debut was sound on a firm track. Tactically, she is sound as she will race close to the speed.

Go For Gold is resumind from the powerful Baker stable looms as the main danger. She showed more than enough ability to win a maiden race last preparation.

Maya (3) and Daimani (8)have minor claims.

Ratings: So Royal (5) from Go for Gold (1)

Best Play: Each way 5, cover 1 in quinella

Quick picks

Quick Picks provide a summary table for printing.

Race	NZ Ratings	Comments	Conf
Race 1	5>1,3,8	Best Play: Each way 5, cover 1 in quinella	5/6
Race 2	1> 5,2,3	Best Play: Pre Race comments here	4/6
Race 3	3,7,2,8	Best Play: Pre Race comments here	2/6
Race 4	1,2,5,3,6	Best Play: Pre Race comments here	3/6
Race 5	5> 8,6,7	Best Play: Pre Race comments here	2/6
Race 6	1,10,2	Best Play: Pre Race comments here	5/6
Race 7	6> 3,5,7,2	Best Play: Pre Race comments here	4/6
Race 8	12,3,5,1	Best Play: Pre Race comments here	1/6

Conf = NZ Ratings confidence out of 6

Speed Maps

Speed Maps are an indication of a horses position in running, after approximately 150-200 metres from the start.
It is a generalisation, based on past performances, the distance of the race, past tactics, and the jockey. It is more a helpful prediction, rather than an all important factor.

Depending on the track orientation (left handed tracks, left is the front, right is the back), the horses are placed in their likely position after 150-200 metres. The solid line represents the running rail.

It is a prediction of what the race will look like given minimal human input. It is therefore inherently flawed as top jockeys are extremely unlikely to get caught 4 wide (they manufacture themselves into a better position), and we cannot foretell drastic changes in tactics.

But the Speed Maps are an integral tool in confirming and reinforcing your assessment of what is, and is not, a good betting proposition. They are also invaluable when a track bias becomes apparent.

Note: The inconsistencies of NZ jockeys, have rendered the relative value of speed maps low. There are certain tracks - Waipa a classic example, where a speed map's value is much higher. Time permitting we will to try to produce them for feature days or races.

Example

Race 1
									1
M+							2		5			12
								4		16			3		13					6		15
Pace = 7.0								8		9			10			14				11			7
	Front																							Rear

 

Race 2
						1		7
F					6			2				12
						4		5					13
Pace = 9.0					3			9				8			10			14			11
	Front																							Rear

Key

The races are given a predicted pace alphanumeric factor:

The speed is from 1.0 to 10.0. 1.0 being a canter with no noted leader/s, and 10.0 a suicidal speed battle between numerous runners.

S- You keep pressing pause still, they dont appear to be moving

S Slow

S/M Slow to Moderate

M- Moderate minus, slightly below average

M Moderate, average

M+ Moderate plus, slightly above average

M/F Moderate to Fast

F Fast

F+ Hot chillies  the Red Savina Habanero kind

Meeting Review

Our analysts provide a comprehensive review of the days racing.

Example:

Meeting review

So Royal put them away in style in Race 1. A win that is unlikely to be her last, closing strongly off a moderate pace. The only reservation I have is the slow run time. The owners, the Bassetts, are lovely people and we wish them every success in the future. $2.50 was no spoil, but she was simply a different class to her opposition. A pity Go For Gold couldn’t quite pick up Maya for 2nd.

Indisputable was probably entitled to win a little more easily than she did. She had a soft enough lead, and the overall run time didn’t compare well. Guiseppina is raced like a genuine improver next time – no rap on the stock of Johar but.

Gaston is the one to follow from the day. He was taken back after a moderate beginning and followed the hot-pot Rampant. Gaston circled the field stylishly around the turn, and although still a bit green, left a strong field toiling in his wake. Zeeanic looks a sure-fire winner sooner rather than later – she got touched off by a good one today. Rampant will win races but might not be as good as the rap.

Denver won easily in good run time. A handy sprinter, who appears stronger this year.

Warren The Rooster was the only disappointment on the day. He still lays in under pressure, a worrying sign. He would have won had he gone straight. In saying that Xante was an unlucky looser last start, and the 2 did come nearly 4 lengths clear – a good sign of form. They also ran 1.01 seconds quicker than the fillies earlier in the day.

Race 6 looked a tough race on paper and we were proven right. Waitui Zone was a good training effort fresh-up, and nicely rated off the front. Magic Fox was entitled to run him down. Not a race to follow for future reference.

Santoreilli did the job nicely off the front. The Hombre looked quite dour in defeat, he looks genuine but might lack a length of class. Balerune is an improved horse, and probably would have been 2nd but for getting caught down on the inside, which raced slower in the latter races.

Lord Farquad indeed! I had 7 runners in the last leg of the quaddie, Murphy’s law they finished 2nd through to 8th. The race was farcical, run at a suicidal fast tempo, and the closers were flattered. Scenic Route and Lucky Hex are worth following after getting tangled up in the speed dual. Couldn’t have found the winner in a 100 years. Well beaten in its only start and unplaced in all 4 of its trials. Sacramento is never to be backed again, and The Cranberries disappointed.

I hope you all had a great day!

Results

Finally a table of results is published.

Example:

Best bets

NZ Ratings selections

Best Bet: Race 5 Warren The Rooster - class factor

Next Best: Race 1 So Royal due to weak opposition, Go For Gold only danger.

Value Bet: Race 3 Gaston

Results

Bet	Horse	Placing	Margin	Win	Place
Best bet	Warren the Rooster	2nd	-0.10		$1.20
Next best	So Royal	1st	+2.25	$2.50	$1.30
Value bet	Gaston	1st	+2.00	$6.60	$1.60

Race results

Race	NZ Ratings	Results	Comments
Race 1	5> 1,3,8	5,3,1,4	Comment Race 1
Race 2	1> 5,2,3	1,3,5,2	Comment Race 2
Race 3	3,7,2,8	7,2,3,4	Comment Race 3
Race 4	1,2,5,3,6	1,3,6,2	Comment Race 4
Race 5	5> 8,6,7	6,5,4,3	Comment Race 5
Race 6	1,10,2	4,10,5,8	Comment Race 6
Race 7	6> 3,5,7,2	6,7,3,2	Comment Race 7
Race 8	12,3,5,1	11,6,1,5	Comment Race 8

Results Key

Red - Selected in order (first three picks)

Blue - Selected in 1st three and placed

Green - Selected in 1st three and came in 4th or selected outside 1st three but placed

Examples

Selection	Result
1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4
1,2,3,4	1,2,4,3
1,2,3,4	1,3,2,4
1,2,3,4	1,3,4,2
1,2,3,4	4,3,2,1
1,2,3,4	1,5,2,3
1,2,3,4	5,6,1,2
1,2,3,4	5,6,7,1