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Introduction to NZ Ratings Blogs
Written by Bruce Sherwin
Betting is about making money. Sure it is a great thrill to back a winner, but your betting must pay long term. You must be thorough in your record keeping. For simplicity, just keep a record of what you are depositing and withdrawing from your TAB account. I personally keep more thorough records analysing my betting on a daily basis, and by venue.
If you are losing money, analyse why, what am I doing wrong? Where can I improve? Often the problem is “too many bets” or not staggering your bets correctly.
Vicki's View - Ellerslie 6th March 2010
Written by Vicki Pike
Ellerslie 6th March 2010 - Race 8
Telecom NZ Derby (Group 1)
Monaco Consul (1) - This highly talented son of sire sensation High Chapparal and the Star Way mare Argante is already the winner of the Group 1 Spring Championship Stakes at Randwick and the Group 1 V.R.C Derby. He is a high class staying 3 year old and should he find his best form today he will be hard to beat.
Also watch out for Rangirangdoo (already previewed) in the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes at Warwick Farm in Sydney.
As always, good luck today ...
Vicki
Otaki 28th February 2010 - Day Review
While it was great to see Mufhasa return to something like his best form, the result of the Group One feature was endemic of what was an extremely biased, leaders track at Otaki on Sunday.
Race 1
Celebration registered a tidy debut performance, but in hindsight received a relatively soft lead, and run time was slow.
Kohi Road closed late, but the 11 race Maiden probably confirmed a relatively low assessment for the race.
Race 2
Stravinskys Affair shared the lead on the outer of Mels Bad Boy and at the line there was a nose between them. Stravinskys Affair benefitted from the drop in distance.
Vicki's View - Matamata 27th February 2010
Written by Vicki Pike
Matamata 27th February 2010 - Race 2
BREEDERS STAKES GP 2 2YOF 1200m
Banchee (2) This half sister to superstar Katie Lee, who lines up next saturday in the Group 1 NZ Derby as the probable favourite, has a lot to live up to. By the way she has been performing she could be even better the her older half sister. By Australian sire Oratorio, who is doing a great job with his 2 year olds, from the Spectacular Phantom mare Miss Jessie Jay winner of the Group 3 Fayette Park Stakes.
As always, good luck today ...
Vicki
Vicki's View - Te Rapa 13th February 2010
Written by Vicki Pike
Te Rapa 13th February 2010 - Race 9
The Waikato Draught Sprint (Group 1)
Arlington (9) is obviously destined for a stud career in NZ. This well bred son of Australian super sire Red Ransom and Group winning mare Savannah Success, who is already the dam of up and coming Waikato Stud Stallion Savabeel, would have a prominent place amongst the New Zealand stallion ranks should he win a Group 1 race such as this.
As always, good luck today ...
Vicki
NZRATINGS.COM Two Months On
Written by Bruce Sherwin Monday, 28 December 2009 14:38
nzratings.com celebrated its 2 month anniversary on Boxing Day (December 26th), after being launched officially on Labour Day (October 26th). Boxing Day was a good day, and had Vosne Romanee not pulled a career best performance from left field to beat Red Ruler, it would have been spectacular.
We are still feeling our way, in terms of content to provide on the site, but our primary focus is finding winners, being a better punter, and returning a profit.
I believe, from my experience, for every racing jurisdiction/country you need a different betting plan to maximise your returns. What works in one place, may not work in another. For example, in Hong Kong you must be patient, “pick your punches” and not bet every race, but in Macau I could bet virtually every race, but vary my staking based on value and confidence. But in Macau and Hong Kong there is only 18 races a week, all the horses train in front of you, and you can analyse the form to the point of diminishing returns for your work input.
Vicki's View - Trentham 23rd January 2010
Written by Vicki Pike
Trentham 23rd January 2010 - Race 6
Veronica Franco (11) by the beautifully bred and well performed Johar from the imported Greinton mare Crystal Hailey the dam of high class melbourne filly Diamond Hailey by Zabeel and the ill fated The Bomb who was also trained by Roger James.
As always, good luck today ...
Vicki
Veronica Franco (11) 4th
Vicki's View - Ellerslie 16th January 2010
Written by Vicki Pike
Ellerslie - Race 7
Maciano (4) - This colt has the complete stallion pedigree. By Australian sire sensation Redoutes Choice, sire of outstanding group performers Fashions Afield, Gods Own, Miss Finland, Not a Single Doubt, Samantha Miss and a host of top class gallopers. From N.Z.Derby winner Popsy (Sir Tristram/Beks) from the amazing producer Miss Jubilee, dam of Steely Dan, Street Hawk, Ayla, Beks and Prince Standaan, all black type performers.
As always, good luck today ...
Vicki
Maciano (4) 2nd $2.20
BOXING DAY 2010 - Results
Auckland - Ellerslie
Best Bet: Race 9 Red Ruler (8) - 2nd $1.80
Next Best: Race 4 Wealth Princess (9) - 1st (1.25L) $1.80 and $1.30
Next Best: Race 6 Katie Lee (1) - 1st (Hd) $1.70 and $1.20
Each Way: Race 5 Dasoudi (5) - 1st (Hd) $3.50 and $1.70
Manawatu - Awapuni
Best Bet: Race 1 Shylo (11) - 1st (Lg Hd) $3.80 and $1.60
Each Way: Race 7 Cugini (7) - 1st (1.25L) $3.90 and $1.90
Sydney - Randwick
Each way: Race 6 - Zazabeau (4) - 2nd - $2.10
Each way: Race 7 - Pinatas (6) - 1st - $2.20 and $1.50
Brisbane - Doomben
Best Bet: Race 1 - Forbes (5) - 1st - $2.80 and $1.60
Best Bet: Race 7 - Alverta (5) - 2nd - $1.90
Each Way: Race 3 - Woorim (12) - 2nd - $1.60
Selections: Race 8 - 1,13,2 - Result: Graceful Anna (13) $4.00 and $2.00, Shoot Out (1) $1.70, Choistar (2) $2.20
Vicki's View - Te Rapa 12th December 2009
Written by Vicki Pike
Te Rapa - Race 7
The Waikato Times Gold Cup Group 2 No 7 Passchendaele. What a loss to the New Zealand breeding industry is Montjeu, the sire of Passchendaele. This wonderful son of Sadlers Wells and Floripedes is the sire of many Group winners including Roman Emperor, Nom du Jeu, Growl, Sharvasti, Guillotine and his latest star Wall Street. Passchendale is out of Classic Babe, a very talented daughter of Classic Fame and Ala Nami. Classic Babe was the winner of the Metropolitan Trophy ( group 3) at Riccarton and was 2nd in the Rotorua Challenge Plate ( Group 3). All up Classic Babe raced 24 times for 6 wins and 7 seconds and Stake money of $103,000.
As always, good luck today ...
Vicki
Vicki's View - Avondale 5th December 2009
Written by Vicki Pike
Avondale - Race 8
Finderskeepers (2) - An outstanding type of horse by Cambridge Stud's Keeper (Danehill-Nurwirah), winner of the SAJC Goodwood Handicap (Group1). Keeper has become a consistantly good sire of both fillies and colts, the likes of St. Germaine, who was a close second in last weeks Levin Classic (Group 1) at Otaki. Being out of a Rorys Jester mare Finderskeepers has an abundance of speed in his pedigree, which is evident in the way he finishes his races.
As always, good luck today
Vicki
KISS = Keep It Simple Stupid
Written by Bruce Sherwin
Racing is a funny game.
We had excellent start to the season, before hitting the rocks about 2 ½ weeks ago, commencing a forgettable run, betting-wise. Losing runs are an inevitable fact of punting. There are times when bad luck, bad rides, or just plain getting it wrong conspires to damage your betting bank.
The silver lining of a losing run is that it checks your over-confidence (ie. you pull your head in). When you think punting is easy – a big fall is usually just around the corner. They also place a good punter into retrenchment mode, reducing the size and, more importantly, frequency and amount of bets. Also a time to check calculations, analysing processes, etc.
Why Give Away Ratings/Selections?
Written by Bruce Sherwin
A good friend asked me the other day “why give away your ratings?”
The obvious answer was that we are not “giving” away our ratings ... it costs $8 per week ... but I understand what he was getting at in terms of providing selections/tips.
The human factor
We provide the ratings, we cannot fill in the betting slip.
When I worked with trainer Joe Lau in Macau, we would provide a set of Ratings for his owners. The results were crazy. The same set of ratings could go to 5 or 6 owners.
Vicki's View - Ellerslie 28th Nov 2009
Race 4 - No2 Sunstrike
The 1st foal of champion mare Sunline (winner of 32 races from 48 starts and $14 million dollars). I doubt we will see another mare of her quality in our lifetime. Sunline only had 4 foals before her untimely demise from laminitis. Yet to debut is Sunsett, a 2 year old filly by Hussonet and Sunalta, a 3 year old full sister to Sunstrike.
Good luck today
Vicki
Vicki's View - Counties Cup Pukekohe 21st Nov 2009
Race 3
Counties Race 3 Everlasting (1) by Australian speed sire General Nediym from Tristachine, a daughter of champion Sir Tristram. Tristachine was a very good two year old winning two races and placing in Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes (Group one) and the Matamata Breeders Stakes (Group 2).
Result: Everlasting 3rd (Lg Nk, Nk)
Race 6
Counties Race 6 Culminate (1) the best daughter of El Nadim, who was only in New Zealand for a couple of seasons, from Solstice, Richard Moore's mare from the wonderful family of Soliloquay, Soltanto and a host of very good gallopers. Already a group one winner in New Zealand, Culminate was very competitive in Sydney last autumn finishing second to Typhoon Tracy in the group one Coolmore Classic.
Result: Culminate 1st
Good luck tomorrow
Vicki
Ellerslie 3rd November 2009 - Day Review
Race 1
An odd race. Slow last 600m, and over-all run time slow. The fallen runner caused some havoc.
Miss Bindi has always looked better than a Maiden and scored nicely.
Mika looked unlucky. Over-racing early and never really clear in the home straight another average D'Yan Masdil ride.
Summer Storm was never clear at any stage in the home straight.
Sateka was held-up when labouring.
The Cruncher looked worse than it actually was. If he was going to win he would have held out the riderless horse.
Race 2
A genuine tempo, gave all runners a chance.
Vicki's View - Riccarton Race 9 14th November 2009
Katie Lee
Riccarton Race 9 the 300k N.Z.Bloodstock 1000 Guineas (Group1). No1 Katie Lee. If Katie Lee backs up after her sensational win last week in the $1million 2000 Guineas against the best colts in N.Z. she should win this. By Pins, Waikato Studs young Snippets sire who has fashioned a great record, siring top class colts and fillies, the likes of El Segundo (Cox Plate), Legs (N.Z.Oaks and Kelt Capital Stakes) and Econsul (Caulfield Guineas), from Miss Jessie Jay, a stakes winning half sister to outstanding sprinting mare Gee I Jane (BTC Cup and WRC Telegraph Handicap, both at Group 1 level). I also like another Pins filly in this race, Aspinal, trained by Tony Pike and Mark Donoghue at Cambridge. The form around this filly is very good after a good 3rd in Keyora's H.B.Guineas and 4th behind Katie Lee in a record breaking James and Annie Sarten Memorial at Te Rapa on October 26th. Hopefully we will see a Pins quinella tomorrow.
Result: Katie Lee 1st
Good Luck tomorrow
Vicki
Vicki's View - Melbourne Cup
Melbourne, Race 7 The Emirates Melbourne Cup, No11 Alcopop.
This is the race that brings racing nations worldwide to a standstill. No other horse in this race is bred to win a Melbourne Cup better than Alcopop. By Jeune (1994 Melbourne Cup) from Iota of Luck, by Blevic (1994 V.R.C.Derby) from an At Talaq mare. At Talaq won the 1986 Melbourne Cup.
Vicki's View - Flemington Race 5 - Rangirangdoo
Flemington, Race 5 ... The G.1. Mckinnon Stakes No11 Rangirangdoo.
I am rather biased towards Rangi as I bred him from our multiple stakes placed mare She Wishes ( Kenfair/Miss Saigon). This is the immediate family of Satinka (Matamata Breeders Stakes G2 and ARC Royal Stakes G2), Master Hunter (Friendly Gains H.K.) and further back the champion March Legend.
OTAKI - 29th October 2009
A Heavy 10 track rating and Rain forecast would normally make for little appeal, but there is a couple of nice horses going around today.
Best Bet: Race 4 #1 Palatine
Palatine has looked a star at the trials, where he is undefeated in 4 outings. He debuted when 2nd to The Embassy - a strong form race, before failing at Ellerslie. The horse has had a number of niggling issues, which are all now resolved. He looked in tremendous order when trialing at Te Teko, and we would be disappointed if he didn't win well!
Result: #1 Palatine - 2nd
Vickis View - Moonee Valley Race 8 The Cox Plate
No 14 So You Think by sire sensation High Chaparral from the multiple stakes winning mare Triassic (Tights/Astral Row).This magnificent looking colt has everything going for him in this race ... light weight, good draw, top jockey and the finishing touches of training legend Bart Cummings. Should So You Think win the Cox Plate his value as a stallion would be priceless.
Good luck today
Vicki
RESULT: So You Think won by 2.5 lengths ... $9.50 and $3.00
Vicki's View - Caulfield Cup 17th October 2009
The beautifully named Daffodil, current favourite for tomorrow's Caulfield Cup in Melbourne. By No Excuse Needed, the young up and coming Waikato Stud sire from Spring who is by O'Reilly from the Shirley Heights mare Head of the River. Spring is lucky to be alive after sustaining life threatening injuries in the Bayer Classic (Gp 1) as a 3 year old. Spring has just this week produced a full sister to Daffodil. Good Luck. Go Daff.
Vicki
RESULT: Daffodil 4th
Vicki's View - Race 3 Hawera 10th October 2009
No 2 Volgus. By evergreen sire Volksraad From the gem of a mare Gussy Godiva. A Last Tycoon mare Gussy Godiva is also the dam of Rios WRC Wellington Guineas Group 2 and Roman Emperor AJC Australian Derby Group 1. If Volgus handles the testing track fresh up he should be too classy for this field.
Vicki
RESULT: Volgus 2nd (by a nose!) $1.80
Vicki's View - Kelt Day Hastings 3rd October 2009
Hastings Race 5 New Zealand Bloodstock Hawkes Bay Guineas No 2 Joey Massino. By champion sire O'Reilly from Rationable from that wonderful family of the Newmans. There are many branches of this family which is seldom without a top class racehorse the likes of Steely Dan ( N.Z.1000 Guineas) and Popsy (N.Z. Derby). Joey Massino is a full brother to top class Australian galloper Vigor and a half brother to Vincent Mangano, winner of the 2008 Karaka Million so lacks nothing on the score of both pedigree and ability.
Vicki
RESULT: Joey Massino 4th
Ashburton - Sunday 18th October 2009
Hong Kong JC raced yesterday with no NZ TAB coverage, so we have taken a quick look at Ashburton CRC today. Good fields, with a strong Northern contingent.
Best Bet: Race 8 #7 Corsage. Fresh-up she ran the fastest closing sectional of the day, on Mudgway day, behind The Hombre. 2nd-up she was most respectable behind high class fillies St Germaine and Katy Lee in the Gold Trail Stakes. She is a class act, and the blinkers go on today.
Result: 1st past post, but raced erratically in blinkers on wet track and was relegated to 2nd on protest... bugger!
Track Spy – Cambridge
Our little track spy at the Cambridge training centre – the biggest training facility in the country - continues to divulge invaluable information.
Earlier this season he put the question mark next to the impressive trials performer Murphy. “Be wary of Murphy, as he appears to be working brilliantly, but for mine he is putting too much effort into his work, working on his nerves, flattering to deceive.”
Tua v’s Cameron
Tomorrow night’s “Fight of the Century” takes place in Hamilton, between Shane Cameron (23-1-0) and David Tua (49-3-1).
And I will call on my conversations with Lord Ted Freer in assessing the rumble in the Tron.
Lord Ted is a legendary Hong Kong and Macau punter, an Englishmen now based in Sydney. He was the man who taught me how to calculate speed ratings, but he was also an enthusiastic follower and of boxing.
Winter Wet Tracks and Ruakaka
The new racing season has arrived. Out with the old and with new! Especially pertinent given the boggy, bottomless, puggy, tracks we have had to endure these past few months. At a recent northern region meeting the margins in a maiden sprint race were: 8 lenghts, 6 lengths, ¾ length, 10 lengths. The 5th placed horse was beaten nearly 25 lengths!
Mudgway Partsworld Stakes outside
Spring is in the air, and you know the new season is in full swing when the first leg of the Hawkes Bay Triple Crown arrives, the Mudgway Partsworld Stakes, Group 1.
The track is currently rating a Slow 7, but with forecast strong winds and warm weather for the remainder of the week, my Hawkes Bay spies are predicting a track “no worse than Dead”.
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