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Waverley and Hong Kong - 14th March 2010
Sunday 14th March 2010 - Waverley RC - Waverley
Race 8: Back Aintree (3) in the Waverley Cup
Aintree (3) Narrowly defeated by Booming last start - who placed 2nd in the Auckland Cup last week. Aintree has been a different horse since aggressively ridden.
Hong Kong Derby Day!
Best Bet: Race 9 - Enriched (7)
Next Best: Race 3 - Leading City (4)
Next Best: Race 5 General Smile (3)
Race 8 - HK Derby
The ratings are close and relatively obvious, so value unlikely.
Ratings: 1-4-5-3-6
Race 10
Ratings: 4-5
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DIARY
Wednesday 17th March 2010 - South Waikato RC - Matamata
Thursday 18th March 2010 - Wanganui JC - Wanganui
Saturday 20th March 2010 - Waikato RC - Te Rapa
Saturday 20th March 2010 - Wellington RC - Trentham
Wednesday 24th March 2010 - Counties RC - Pukekohe Park
Thursday 25th March 2010 - Woodville-Pahiatua RC - Woodville
Friday 26th March 2010 - Waipa RC - Te Awamutu
Saturday 27th March 2010 - Racing Tauranga - Tauranga
Sunday 28th March 2010 - Masterton RC - Tauherenikau
Wednesday 31st March 2010 - Paeroa RC - Paeroa
Thursday 1st April 2010 - Taranaki Thoroughbred Racing Inc - Pukekura Raceway
Saturday 3rd April 2010 - Auckland RC - Ellerslie
Saturday 3rd April 2010 - Manawatu RC - Awapuni
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Otaki M4 12th March 2010 - Results
Friday 12th March 2010 - Otaki-Maori RC - Otaki
The Otaki track was horrendously biased on Otaki WFA Day and given that the rail remains in the same position, the best play = leaders, and inside barriers.
Four picks today ...
Race 1 - Queen Of The Castle (6) 2nd $1.50
Race 2 - Ando Bay (5) 4th
Race 7 - Sharp Princess (1) 1st $2.70 and $1.60
Race 8 - Snake Gully (2) 1st $4.50 and $1.90
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AUCKLAND CUP DAY - ELLERSLIE - 10th March 2010
DAY REVIEW
"Not a great day betting-wise, so take it easy. I wont be getting too involved."
Famous last words - I wish I had followed my own advice. What a horrendous day!
Punting has got to be one of the most unforgiving occupations/pastimes known to man. After the high of Derby Day Saturday, to the low of Cup Day.
The most frustrating point, was that after doing the form, I didn’t like the day, and commenced betting reluctantly.
In numerous races the chances rated too close – no stand-outs all day. When the ratings are close, luck in running becomes too great a factor. You will note in most races less than 3 lengths covered the first 5 or 6 horses.
Race 2
Pentango was given a poor ride. 3-4 wide and working round the bend. This rider is a family friend, but a slow learner when it comes to learning what happens when you work a horse 3-wide around a turn.
Race 3
Marabeel went too quick in front, in a race that set-up perfectly for the closers – the winner came from last. To be fair, if he was a good horse he still would have won. Keep Boy Star on side, he was very erratic in the run, to the point where he was nearly out of control. A good effort to be beaten just 2.0 lengths.
Race 4
I doubt Elbaz will be ridden by Noel Harris again. “Harry” just had a nightmare on Elbaz, so much so, it was comical. Bemusingly, had he sat back last, done nothing (a la Dadzadreamer) he would have won anyway. His effort was tidy, but it was a poor race.
Race 5
A Chance To Dream has been a revelation since stepped up in distance. Her performance was freakish! Caught back in a slowly run race, she produced a miraculous turn of foot to win by 4.0 lengths. A win that defies logic. I cannot see how any horse behind her could turn the tables on her in the Oaks. The Oaks now looks a two horse race – Zarzuela and A Chance To Dream.
Race 6
Sam’s Town was always going to be suited by a strong pace, and obliged as predicted. I was grumpy by now and didn’t have a red cent on him.
Race 7
Vonusti was the run of the race in the Darley Plate. He gave the winner 5kgs, and only missed narrowly. He keeps getting better! Beautiful Girl was back to her best to repel the late challenge – she is high quality mare. Atapi looked scratchy in his action and was never a factor.
Race 8
How could you possibly give Zeytin a hope? Has never looked like getting warm away from his home track of Waipa. Bibulous was very good back to 1400m. He closed strongly in a slowly run race.
Race 9
Wasn’t it nice to see a truly run staying contest, and the best horse winning. Zavite on normal early speed looked like getting caught wide close to a solid speed. One suspects Oliver had a heads-up on the pace of the race, and Zavite was taken back to worse than midfield early. He was a different class to his opposition. James MacDonald is lacking confidence in big races. He made a decision to move at the 800m, and then changed his mind near the 500m, and got pushed wide. He should have trusted his instincts and kept rolling. It may have cost him a place chance.
As per the punting day, I advised to bet 1st and 3rd ratings – and the 2nd rater won!
Race 10
Another result from out of left-field, but the speed rating was exceptionally good for this class of horse. Two Up raced greenly in the home straight, in what was a battling effort – disappointing, especially when you consider he was 4+ lengths superior to High Command the last time they met. I’m A King was unlucky, and is worth following.
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ELLERSLIE 6th March 2010 - Results
DERBY DAY 2010 - Military Move "Value play"... "is over the odds". He was available at $26FF at time of posting!
Hard not to love Derby Day, and we are blessed with an outstanding bunch of 3yo’s this season.
Four out of 10 today ...
Race 1 - Delegator 1st $6.40 and $1.90
Race 2 - Keffiya 1st $2.30 and $1.60
Race 3 - Natsinga 1st $7.80 and $2.20
Race 9 - Pinot Girl 1st $2.50 and $1.60
Race 8 - The Derby - While we went with Zarzuela (Rating 100) and expected her to win despite being "Badly drawn" we had to qualify the selection ... "a class act, Zarzuela (14) would have been a great bet had she drawn a barrier … bet down now". We selected Military Move with a rating of 95 as a "Value bet ... Military Move (2) is over the odds". A great win at $15.80 and $3.60.
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OTAKI - 28th February 2010 - Day Review
Sunday 28th February 2010 - Otaki-Maori RC - Day Review
While it was great to see Mufhasa return to something like his best form, the result of the Group One feature was endemic of what was an extremely biased, leaders track at Otaki on Sunday.
Race 1
Celebration registered a tidy debut performance, but in hindsight received a relatively soft lead, and run time was slow.
Kohi Road closed late, but the 11 race Maiden probably confirmed a relatively low assessment for the race.
Race 2
Stravinskys Affair shared the lead on the outer of Mels Bad Boy and at the line there was a nose between them. Stravinskys Affair benefitted from the drop in distance.
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AVONDALE 24th February 2010 - Results
Wednesday 24th February 2010 - Avondale JC - Avondale
Disappointing field sizes, but given $6,000 stakes this could be a taste of what is to come if stake money levels are not addressed, and quickly. The Avondale track was ridiculously firm for the recent barrier trials. We are concerned that this may be the case again and some horses may not run up to their best because of this. Overall a moderate day’s racing.
Race 2 - High Command 1st $2.30 and $1.00, Sundown 2nd $1.40
Race 5 - Jungletime 2nd $1.10
Race 7 - Spera 1st $2.70 and $1.40, C’est La Vie 2nd $2.20
Race 8 - Carniva Boy 1st $2.30 and $1.40
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WAIROA Sunday 21st February 2010
Sunday 21st February 2010 - Wairoa RC - Te Kupenga
Weather Fine, Track DEAD4 ... 21mm of rain overnight has significantly dampened our enthusiasm for racing at the popular Wairoa track today.
6 races reviewed for 2 winners and 3 places ...
Race 6 - Miranda Miss (8) 1st $2.90 and $1.30
Race 7 - Traditio (1) 1st $4.40 and $1.70
Race 3 - Beijing Gold (4) 2nd $1.10
Race 10 - Garder L'Amour (13) 2nd $2.10
Race 2 - Dorotea Dior (10) 3rd $1.30
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TE RAPA - Saturday 13th February 2010 - Result
Saturday 13th February 2010 - Waikato Races - Te Rapa
A great days racing ...
Three picks 1st and five picks 2nd
Race 1 - Saheel (2) 2nd (0.75L) $1.70
Race 2 - Capacia (4) 2nd (Nk) $1.10
Race 3 - Fazzle (5) 2nd (Hd) $2.70
Race 4 - Gallant (3) 2nd (Sht Nk) $1.70
Race 5 - Katie Lee (1) 1st (Sht Nk) $2.60 and $1.40
Race 7 - Veloce Bella (5) 1st (Nk) $5.30 and $1.80
Race 8 - Elbaz (3) 1st (1L) $2.60 and $1.40
Race 9 - Wealth Princess (12) 2nd (Nk) $1.60
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SPECTACULAR RACE DAY!
A Spectacular day at the races today with a stellar NINE FIRSTS OUT OF FIFTEEN RACES, A QUINELLA AND AN AUSTRALIAN ALL UP BET SELECTED!!
Saturday 6th February 2010 - Waikato RC - Te Rapa
Nine picks at Te Rapa - Five results ...
Race 1 Two Up (1) a good bet ... quinella with Snagglepuss (3) Result: Two Up (1) 1st $4.00 and $1.40, Snagglepuss (3) 2nd $1.30 (Quinella $4.90)
Race 6 Zarzuela (13) 1st $5.00 and $1.80
Race 7 Pinot Girl (11) 1st $3.60 and $1.80
Race 8 Veloce Bella (2) 1st $3.70 and $1.80
Race 9 Tanalised (6) 1st $2.40 and $1.30
Saturday 6th February 2010 - Otago RC - Te Rapa -Only 2 picks made ...
Race 6 Coup Align (1) 1st $1.30 and $1.00
Race 11 El Torro (11) 1st $2.20 and $1.10
Saturday 6th February 2010 - Caulfield RC - Melbourne - 4 races reviewed today!
Race 3 Denman (1) 1st $1.20 and $1.00
Race 7 Typhoon Tracey (10) 1st $1.30 and $1.00
"Recommended Bet - All-Up Bet: Race 1 #6 Place, Race 3 # 1 Win, Race 7 # 10 Win, Race 9 # 4 Place" - Paid: $34.95 on 10 units.
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